The Center for Business and Economic Research
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
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The Center for Business and Economic Research University of Nevada, Las Vegas
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Yes, perhaps we may have the first signs of finding a bottom to the current recession. March data, the last month for which we have a full reporting, offer a few pleasant signs. Seasonal factors aside, we find several Silver State indicators moving up by healthy percentages relative to the previous month—enough to suggest that perhaps the positive factors are gaining strength.
All the recent month-over-month changes for Nevada, Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno) are less than the year-ago changes. Recovering from last year’s sharp declines, however, and returning to prosperity will likely take longer than usual because of Nevada’s nasty housing problems and the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. We should expect ups and downs before we get a clear read and can take comfort that we have fully recovered.
March visitor volume is up by double-digit rates over February’s levels—up 12.8, 12.4, and 17.7 percent respectively for Nevada, Clark County (Las Vegas), Washoe County (Reno). Gaming revenue over this period remained favorable, falling short of the pace with visitor volume (showing gains of 10.5, 10.7 and 9.3 percent for the corresponding areas). Amid the uncertainties about future jobs and income, properties found people with discretionary income willing to take advantage of value opportunities being offered.
Since there were only two mild and short downturns between the mid-1980s and 2007, many have no experience with the severe recession we now have. Moreover, the Silver State’s fortunes ride with one industry whose fate depends on mainly on discretionary consumer spending. As a result, harder hit by this recession than the U.S., the Nevada unemployment rate is at 10.5 percent of the labor force compared with 8.9 percent nationally.
Recovery from this recession will depend heavily on the consumer. Autos, housing, furniture, and home repairs, along with travel and tourism, will be important. Nationally, auto and light truck sales are down to 9.5 million units at an annual rate from 16 million units two years ago. GM and Chrysler have sunk under the weight of the decline. Most recently, we see sales down 35.7 percent from year ago levels, but the month-over-month decline has slowed to 5.5 percent, perhaps we are seeing another example of a bottom forming in the national business cycle—a welcomed sign for the Silver State’s fortunes which depend on incomes elsewhere.
R. Keith Schwer, Ph.D.| Data | Growth | |||||||
| Nevada | Date | Units | Latest | Previous | Year Ago | Recent | Year Ago | Comments |
| Employment | 2009M4 | 000 employees | 1,202.0 | 1,207.2 | 1,280.5 | -0.4% | -6.1% | Trend Down |
| Unemployment Rate | 2009M4 | %, NSA | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 0.0% | 101.9% | Recent Pause |
| Taxable Sales | 2009M3 | $billion | 3.596 | 2.935 | 4.305 | 22.5% | -16.5% | Recent Up |
| Gaming Revenue | 2009M3 | $million | 918.24 | 830.95 | 1,038.81 | 10.5% | -11.6% | Recent Up |
| Passengers | 2009M4 | passengers | 3.927 | 4.033 | 4.208 | -2.6% | -6.7% | Recent Modest Decline |
| Gasoline Sales | 2009M3 | million gallons | 93.85 | 82.15 | 96.67 | 14.2% | -2.9% | Recent Up |
| Visitor Volume | 2009M2 | million visitors | 4.092 | 3.627 | 4.461 | 12.8% | -8.3% | Recent Up |
| Clark County | ||||||||
| Employment | 2009M4 | 000 employees | 871.4 | 875.6 | 926.1 | -0.5% | -5.9% | Trend Down |
| Unemployment Rate | 2009M4 | %, NSA | 10.4 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 0.0% | 108.0% | Recent Pause |
| Taxable Sales | 2009M3 | $billion | 2.758 | 2.216 | 3.226 | 24.5% | -14.5% | Recent Up |
| Gaming Revenue | 2009M3 | $million | 786.46 | 710.60 | 871.90 | 10.7% | -9.8% | Recent Up |
| Residential Permits | 2009M4 | units permitted | 410 | 759 | 760 | -46.0% | -46.1% | Down Big |
| Commercial Permits | 2009M4 | permits | 23 | 27 | 49 | -14.8% | -53.1% | Down Big |
| Passengers | 2009M4 | million persons | 3.619 | 3.693 | 3.848 | -2.0% | -6.0% | Recent Modest Decline |
| Gasoline Sales | 2009M3 | million gallons | 65.70 | 57.66 | 67.91 | 14.0% | -3.2% | Recent Up |
| Visitor Volume | 2009M2 | million visitors | 3.550 | 3.159 | 3.856 | 12.4% | -7.9% | Recent Up |
| Washoe County | ||||||||
| Employment* | 2009M4 | 000 employees | 198.9 | 199.6 | 217.4 | -0.4% | -8.5% | Trend Down |
| Unemployment Rate* | 2009M4 | %, NSA | 11.0 | 11.2 | 5.6 | -1.8% | 96.4% | Recent Improvement |
| Taxable Sales | 2009M3 | $billion | 0.434 | 0.389 | 0.599 | 11.8% | -27.4% | Recent Up |
| Gaming Revenue | 2009M3 | $million | 64.82 | 59.32 | 84.50 | 9.3% | -23.3% | Recent Up |
| Residential Permits | 2009M4 | units permitted | 37 | 47 | 240 | -21.3% | -84.6% | Down Big |
| Commercial Permits | 2009M4 | permits | 13 | 86 | 21 | -84.9% | -38.1% | Down Big |
| Passengers | 2009M4 | million persons | 0.305 | 0.337 | 0.355 | -9.5% | -14.1% | Down |
| Gasoline Sales | 2009M3 | million gallons | 14.26 | 12.76 | 14.55 | 11.8% | -2.0% | Recent Up |
| Visitor Volume | 2009M2 | million visitors | 0.347 | 0.295 | 0.393 | 17.7% | -11.6% | Recent Up |
| U.S. | ||||||||
| Employment | 2009M4 | million, SA | 132.414 | 132.953 | 137.654 | -0.4% | -3.8% | Trend Down |
| Unemployment Rate | 2009M4 | %, SA | 8.9 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 4.7% | 78.0% | Rising |
| Consumer Price Index | 2009M4 | 82-84=100, NSA | 213.2 | 212.7 | 214.8 | 0.2% | -0.7% | Turned Up Modestly |
| Core CPI | 2009M4 | 82-84=100, NSA | 219.1 | 218.6 | 215.1 | 0.2% | 1.9% | Up Modestly |
| Employment Cost Index | 2009Q1 | 89.06=100, SA | 109.8 | 109.6 | 107.6 | 0.2% | 2.0% | Favorable |
| Productivity Index | 2009Q1 | 92=100, SA | 143.0 | 142.6 | 140.4 | 0.3% | 1.9% | Up |
| Retail Sales Growth | 2009M4 | $billion, SA | 337.677 | 338.930 | 375.028 | -0.4% | -10.0% | Down |
| Auto and Truck Sales | 2009M4 | million, SA | 9.29 | 9.83 | 14.46 | -5.5% | -35.7% | Down |
| Housing Starts | 2009M4 | million, SA | 0.458 | 0.525 | 1.004 | -12.8% | -54.4% | Down |
| Real GDP Growth | 2009Q1 | 2000$billion, SA | 11,353.7 | 11,522.1 | 11,646.0 | -1.5% | -2.5% | Down |
| U.S. Dollar | 2009M5 | 97.01=100 | 106.488 | 109.670 | 95.831 | -2.9% | 11.1% | Down |
| Trade Balance | 2009M3 | $billion, SA | -27.577 | -26.134 | -57.405 | 5.5% | -52.0% | Still Better |
| S and P 500 | 2009M5 | monthly close | 919.14 | 872.81 | 1,400.38 | 5.3% | -34.4% | Up |
| Real Short-term Rates | 2009M4 | %, NSA | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 122.2% | -129.4% | Up |
| Treasury Yield Spread | 2009M5 | %, NSA | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 12.3% | 46.7% | Up |
| *Reflects the Reno-Sparks MSA which includes Washoe and Storey Counties | ||||||||
| Sources: Nevada Department of Taxation; Nevada Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation; UNR Bureau of Business and Economic Research; UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research; McCarran International Airport; Reno/Tahoe International Airport; Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority; Reno-Sparks Convention and Visitors Authority; U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. | ||||||||
| Note: NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted, SA = Seasonally Adjusted | ||||||||
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