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Nevada Economic Conditions
January 13, 2012According to revised data, U.S. real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent during third quarter 2011, which represents a gain over the second-quarter figure of 1.3 percent. Consumption spending and business fixed investment were particularly strong. Preliminary indicators—such as retail sales and industrial production—suggest the growth of U.S. real GDP will prove to be even stronger in fourth quarter 2011. U.S. nonfarm employment rose by 200,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent. Both consumer confidence and sentiment rose sharply in November and December. Sales of existing homes rose by 4.0 percent in November, and are well above a year earlier. Sales of new homes slipped in November after holding steady for two straight months. Personal consumption expenditures rose in November for the fifth straight month, and retail sales rose in December for the seventh straight month. The Kansas City Financial Stress Index edged downward in December but remained above its long-run average, suggesting that financial headwinds continue to slow U.S. economic growth.
The Nevada economy continues to show signs of growth. Taking a seasonal decline in November, visitor volume was 2.5 percent higher than a year earlier. Gaming revenue was 7.1 percent higher in November than a year earlier. Taxable sales were up by 12.1 percent in October above a year earlier. From November 2010 to November 2011, Nevada saw a gain of 12,600 jobs (1.1 percent), mostly the result of gains in leisure and hospitality, business services, and health and education services. The Nevada unemployment rate fell from 12.7 percent in October to 12.2 percent in November.
Clark County’s economic activity continues to expand at a slow pace. Compared to a year earlier, visitor volume was up by 2.3 percent in November. Gaming revenues were up by 7.8 percent over the same period. Taxable sales for October were 9.3 percent above those for the same month a year earlier. Residential construction permits rose from November to December, and commercial construction permits held steady at a low level. Employment in the Las Vegas metropolitan area increased by 11,400 jobs (1.4 percent) from November 2010 to November 2011. The Las Vegas unemployment rate fell from 13.1 percent in October to 12.5 percent in November.
Washoe County’s overall economic conditions appear mixed. Compared to a year earlier, November visitor volume was up by 4.2 percent, and gaming was up by 2.0 percent. Both residential and commercial construction permits slipped from November to December, and both remain near historically low levels. Reno-Sparks employment fell by 1,500 jobs from November 2010 to November 2011. The Reno-Sparks unemployment rate fell from 12.1 percent in October to 11.6 percent in November, as job-seeking declined.
Driven by strong gains in spending, national economic conditions improved in third quarter. Economic growth is likely to prove stronger in fourth quarter. The Southern Nevada tourism, hospitality, and gaming industries continued to show gains—as did other parts of the region’s economy. The Southern Nevada economy is likely to show further gains as the U.S. economy strengthens. Nevada’s real estate and construction sectors remain close to bottom. The economy remains weak in Washoe County, but some favorable signs are seen in visitor volume and gaming.
Prof. Stephen P. A. Brown, PhDDirector, Center for Business and Economic Research
College of Business
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
| Data | Growth | |||||||
| Nevada | Date | Units | Latest | Previous | Year Ago | Recent | Year Ago | Comments |
| Employment | 2011M11 | 000 employees | 1,129.2 | 1,129.8 | 1,116.6 | -0.1% | 1.1% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Unemployment Rate* | 2011M11 | %, NSA | 12.2 | 12.7 | 14.4 | -0.5% | -2.2% | Improved |
| Taxable Sales | 2011M10 | $billion | 3.516 | 3.583 | 3.137 | -1.9% | 12.1% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Gaming Revenue | 2011M11 | $million | 880.14 | 960.69 | 822.10 | -8.4% | 7.1% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Passengers | 2011M11 | passengers | 3.644 | 4.103 | 3.533 | -11.2% | 3.1% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Gasoline Sales | 2011M10 | million gallons | 90.82 | 90.61 | 92.35 | 0.2% | -1.7% | Price Effects |
| Visitor Volume | 2011M11 | million visitors | 3.743 | 4.240 | 3.654 | -11.7% | 2.5% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Clark County | ||||||||
| Employment | 2011M11 | 000 employees | 811.0 | 811.4 | 799.6 | 0.0% | 1.4% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Unemployment Rate* | 2011M11 | %, NSA | 12.5 | 13.1 | 14.9 | -0.6% | -2.4% | Improved |
| Taxable Sales | 2011M10 | $billion | 2.524 | 2.568 | 2.309 | -1.7% | 9.3% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Gaming Revenue | 2011M11 | $million | 771.88 | 836.51 | 715.83 | -7.7% | 7.8% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Residential Permits | 2011M12 | units permitted | 550 | 289 | 496 | 90.3% | 10.9% | Improved |
| Commercial Permits | 2011M12 | permits | 13 | 13 | 14 | 0.0% | -7.1% | At Low Level |
| Passengers | 2011M11 | million persons | 3.381 | 3.813 | 3.260 | -11.3% | 3.7% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Gasoline Sales | 2011M10 | million gallons | 61.58 | 61.00 | 63.03 | 0.9% | -2.3% | Price Effects |
| Visitor Volume | 2011M11 | million visitors | 3.262 | 3.691 | 3.189 | -11.6% | 2.3% | Up Over Year Ago |
| Washoe County | ||||||||
| Employment** | 2011M11 | 000 employees | 189.7 | 189.5 | 191.2 | 0.1% | -0.8% | Mixed |
| Unemployment Rate* | 2011M11 | %, NSA | 11.6 | 12.1 | 13.6 | -0.5% | -2.0% | Improved |
| Taxable Sales | 2011M10 | $billion | 0.475 | 0.448 | 0.413 | 5.9% | 14.9% | Up Sharply |
| Gaming Revenue | 2011M11 | $million | 53.51 | 63.52 | 52.49 | -15.8% | 2.0% | Mixed |
| Residential Permits | 2011M12 | units permitted | 30 | 59 | 29 | -49.2% | 3.4% | At Low Level |
| Commercial Permits | 2011M12 | permits | 6 | 11 | 6 | -45.5% | 0.0% | At Low Level |
| Passengers | 2011M11 | million persons | 0.259 | 0.285 | 0.270 | -9.1% | -3.8% | Down |
| Gasoline Sales | 2011M10 | million gallons | 14.19 | 14.17 | 14.22 | 0.1% | -0.2% | Flat |
| Visitor Volume | 2011M11 | million visitors | 0.303 | 0.347 | 0.291 | -12.7% | 4.2% | Up Over Year Ago |
| United States | ||||||||
| Employment | 2011M12 | million, SA | 131.900 | 131.700 | 130.260 | 0.2% | 1.3% | Trending Up |
| Unemployment Rate | 2011M12 | %, SA | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9.4 | -0.2% | -0.9% | Improved |
| Consumer Price Index | 2011M11 | 82-84=100, NSA | 226.7 | 226.8 | 219.2 | 0.0% | 3.4% | Little Recent Change |
| Core CPI | 2011M11 | 82-84=100, NSA | 226.8 | 226.4 | 222.1 | 0.2% | 2.2% | Up |
| Employment Cost Index | 2011Q3 | 89.06=100, SA | 114.2 | 113.8 | 112.3 | 0.4% | 1.7% | Up Sharply |
| Productivity Index | 2011Q3 | 2005=100, SA | 110.9 | 110.4 | 110.3 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Improved |
| Retail Sales | 2011M12 | $billion, SA | 400.614 | 400.268 | 376.208 | 0.1% | 6.5% | Upward Trend |
| Auto and Truck Sales | 2011M11 | million, SA | 13.60 | 13.22 | 12.24 | 2.9% | 11.1% | Up Sharply |
| Housing Starts | 2011M11 | million, SA | 0.685 | 0.627 | 0.551 | 9.3% | 24.3% | Up Sharply |
| Real GDP*** | 2011Q3 | 2000$billion, SA | 13,331.6 | 13,271.8 | 13,139.6 | 1.8% | 1.5% | Up |
| U.S. Dollar | 2011M12 | 97.01=100 | 100.464 | 99.544 | 99.784 | 0.9% | 0.7% | Strengthening |
| Trade Balance | 2011M11 | $billion, SA | -47.752 | -43.271 | -38.842 | 10.4% | 22.9% | Widened |
| S and P 500 | 2011M12 | monthly close | 1,257.60 | 1,246.96 | 1,257.64 | 0.9% | 0.0% | Up Slightly |
| Real Short-term Rates* | 2011M12 | %, NSA | -3.1 | -3.2 | -2.9 | 0.1% | -0.3% | Extremely Low |
| Treasury Yield Spread | 2011M12 | %, NSA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.2 | -1.5% | -37.5% | Narrowing |
| *Growth data represent change in the percentage rate | ||||||||
| **Reflects the Reno-Sparks MSA which includes Washoe and Storey Counties | ||||||||
| ***Recent growth is an annulized rate | ||||||||
| Sources: Nevada Department of Taxation; Nevada Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation; UNR Bureau of Business and Economic Research; UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research; McCarran International Airport; Reno/Tahoe International Airport; Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority; Reno-Sparks Convention and Visitors Authority; U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. | ||||||||
| Note: NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted, SA = Seasonally Adjusted | ||||||||
Data collected and analyzed by Bob Potts
Based on the Center's monthly column on business conditions statewide in the Nevada Business Magazine