The Center for Business and Economic Research
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
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The Center for Business and Economic Research University of Nevada, Las Vegas
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The national recession continues, though some signs of recovery give heart that things are on the move. For one, the U.S. Index of Leading Indicators, a six-month-ahead forecast, has been on the upswing over the past five months, suggesting that spring 2010 may see the end of the national recession.
On the other hand, the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Indicators, constructed similarly to the national index, but using Nevada data, shows no shift in economic fortunes. The index continues a downward drift, giving no signal of an end to the severe recession affecting the Silver State. The severity of the recession shows in the 13.1, 13.9 and 13.5 unemployment rates, for Washoe County (Reno), Clark County (Las Vegas), and Nevada, respectively. Keep in mind that these rates count part-time workers as full-time employment; and, as a result, these rates overestimate the strength of the labor market.
As the recession has increased in intensity, more layoffs have occurred and hours of work are reduced, resulting in less take-home pay and subsequent spending. But less spending cascades into further spending losses. We look to a recovery of the natural economy to bring the cycle of contraction to a halt.
In the recovery ahead, travel and tourism indicators will surely recover earlier than construction activity. Having overbuilt housing, commercial real estate, and hotel rooms, construction opportunities have shrunk greatly. This factor alone gives reason for a return to more modest growth once the recession comes to an end. The Silver State has enjoyed a period of great prosperity-the baseline for future business growth will likely be lower and more challenging.
R. Keith Schwer, Ph.D.| Data | Growth | |||||||
| Nevada | Date | Units | Latest | Previous | Year Ago | Recent | Year Ago | Comments |
| Employment | 2009M9 | 000 employees | 1,185.4 | 1,173.7 | 1,261.9 | 1.0% | -6.1% | Job Losses |
| Unemployment Rate | 2009M9 | %, NSA | 13.5 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.8% | 77.6% | Up Sharply |
| Taxable Sales | 2009M8 | $billion | 3.076 | 3.075 | 4.054 | 0.0% | -24.1% | Recent Gains |
| Gaming Revenue | 2009M9 | $million | 911.14 | 847.04 | 1,001.10 | 7.6% | -9.0% | Recent Gains |
| Passengers | 2009M8 | passengers | 3.702 | 3.899 | 3.781 | -5.0% | -2.1% | Cost and Availability |
| Gasoline Sales | 2009M8 | million gallons | 97.21 | 99.12 | 100.95 | -1.9% | -3.7% | Less Travel |
| Visitor Volume | 2009M8 | million visitors | 3.966 | 4.012 | 3.829 | -1.2% | 3.6% | Up, Year Ago |
| Clark County | ||||||||
| Employment | 2009M9 | 000 employees | 854.3 | 844.7 | 910.6 | 1.1% | -6.2% | Job Losses |
| Unemployment Rate | 2009M9 | %, NSA | 13.9 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.7% | 80.5% | Up Sharply |
| Taxable Sales | 2009M8 | $billion | 2.239 | 2.226 | 3.029 | 0.6% | -26.1% | Recent Gains |
| Gaming Revenue | 2009M9 | $million | 774.06 | 708.13 | 853.51 | 9.3% | -9.3% | Recent Gains |
| Residential Permits | 2009M9 | units permitted | 418 | 774 | 1,054 | -46.0% | -60.3% | No New Construction |
| Commercial Permits | 2009M9 | permits | 19 | 24 | 54 | -20.8% | -64.8% | No New Construction |
| Passengers | 2009M8 | million persons | 3.394 | 3.550 | 3.439 | -4.4% | -1.3% | Cost and Availability |
| Gasoline Sales | 2009M8 | million gallons | 65.47 | 66.98 | 67.65 | -2.3% | -3.2% | Less Travel |
| Visitor Volume | 2009M8 | million visitors | 3.351 | 3.402 | 3.231 | -1.5% | 3.7% | Up, Year Ago |
| Washoe County | ||||||||
| Employment* | 2009M9 | 000 employees | 197.7 | 197.0 | 214.3 | 0.4% | -7.7% | Job Losses |
| Unemployment Rate* | 2009M9 | %, NSA | 13.1 | 12.4 | 7.3 | 5.6% | 79.5% | Up Sharply |
| Taxable Sales | 2009M8 | $billion | 0.465 | 0.443 | 0.569 | 5.1% | -18.1% | Recent Gains |
| Gaming Revenue | 2009M9 | $million | 72.14 | 73.87 | 77.04 | -2.3% | -6.4% | Down Modestly |
| Residential Permits | 2009M9 | units permitted | 273 | 31 | 417 | 780.6% | -34.5% | No New Construction |
| Commercial Permits | 2009M9 | permits | 32 | 10 | 44 | 220.0% | -27.3% | No New Construction |
| Passengers | 2009M8 | million persons | 0.304 | 0.345 | 0.338 | -11.8% | -9.9% | Cost and Availability |
| Gasoline Sales | 2009M8 | million gallons | 15.70 | 16.02 | 17.24 | -2.0% | -8.9% | Less Travel |
| Visitor Volume | 2009M8 | million visitors | 0.426 | 0.419 | 0.416 | 1.6% | 2.5% | Up |
| U.S. | ||||||||
| Employment | 2009M10 | million, SA | 130.848 | 131.038 | 136.352 | -0.1% | -4.0% | Job Losses |
| Unemployment Rate | 2009M10 | %, SA | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 4.1% | 54.5% | Rising |
| Consumer Price Index | 2009M9 | 82-84=100, NSA | 216.0 | 215.8 | 218.8 | 0.1% | -1.3% | Modest Change |
| Core CPI | 2009M9 | 82-84=100, NSA | 220.1 | 219.6 | 216.9 | 0.2% | 1.5% | Modest Inflation |
| Employment Cost Index | 2009Q3 | 89.06=100, SA | 110.5 | 110.0 | 109.1 | 0.5% | 1.3% | Modest Drag |
| Productivity Index | 2009Q3 | 92=100, SA | 150.1 | 146.6 | 143.9 | 2.4% | 4.3% | Nice Gains |
| Retail Sales Growth | 2009M9 | $billion, SA | 344.688 | 349.885 | 366.555 | -1.5% | -6.0% | Still Depressed |
| Auto and Truck Sales | 2009M10 | million, SA | 10.43 | 9.18 | 10.78 | 13.6% | -3.2% | Program Effect |
| Housing Starts | 2009M9 | million, SA | 0.590 | 0.587 | 0.822 | 0.5% | -28.2% | Housing Woes Continue |
| Real GDP Growth | 2009Q3 | 2000$billion, SA | 13,014.0 | 12,901.5 | 13,324.6 | 0.9% | -2.3% | Sign of Recovery |
| U.S. Dollar | 2009M10 | 97.01=100 | 101.777 | 103.127 | 106.951 | -1.3% | -4.8% | Taking a Hit |
| Trade Balance | 2009M8 | $billion, SA | -30.710 | -31.850 | -60.913 | -3.6% | -49.6% | Recession Effects |
| S and P 500 | 2009M10 | monthly close | 1,036.19 | 1,057.08 | 968.75 | -2.0% | 7.0% | Signs of Optimism |
| Real Short-term Rates | 2009M9 | %, NSA | 0.1 | -0.1 | 1.3 | -220.0% | -95.3% | Remains Low |
| Treasury Yield Spread | 2009M10 | %, NSA | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.2% | 6.4% | Expansionary |
| *Reflects the Reno-Sparks MSA which includes Washoe and Storey Counties | ||||||||
| Sources: Nevada Department of Taxation; Nevada Department of Employment, Training, and Rehabilitation; UNR Bureau of Business and Economic Research; UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research; McCarran International Airport; Reno/Tahoe International Airport; Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority; Reno-Sparks Convention and Visitors Authority; U.S. Department of Commerce; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. | ||||||||
| Note: NSA = Not Seasonally Adjusted, SA = Seasonally Adjusted | ||||||||
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