“I think the economy locally still is strong,” said Andrew Woods, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research. “Where we’re concerned is that the national outlook is certainly dampening… there’s these shocks essentially happening to the economy. In this case, tariffs and with that is uncertainty in how businesses are responding. So far, it’s more of a wait-and-see approach.”

Four in 10 local business leaders did express optimism about increased sales in Q2. The rest believe sales will be the same as Q1 or worse. The biggest challenges for employers were economic uncertainty and hiring qualified people.

The report shows an overall index increase from 90.4 in the last quarter of 2024 to 105.7 for Q1 in 2025. The report pointed out that Clark County had “relatively negative economic signals” near the end of 2024. Unemployment increased, taxable sales were lower, gaming revenue declined and fewer airline passengers visited.

Woods added that the CBER is not predicting a downturn but is revising the forecast to reflect lower growth this year.

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Professor and research director for the UNLV Center for Business & Economic Research Stephen Miller says we’re not there yet though.

But how can you prepare? Miller says you can save and limit your purchases, but he warns that can lead the economy in the wrong direction.

“So, what you’re doing is you’re reducing consumption but at the national level if everyone did that, that would help push us into a recession,” said Miller.

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A survey of local business leaders shows more than half predict the U.S. economy will slide into a recession within the next two years, according to a quarterly report released by UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

According to the Southern Nevada Business Confidence Index, when asked to predict the next U.S. recession, 55.8 percent responded the U.S. economy could slide into a recession within the next 24 months, while slightly more than 30 percent didn’t see any recession happening in that timeframe. The remaining respondents said the country was already in a recession or predicted it would happen next year.

Forty-one percent of business leaders said their outlook of U.S. economic conditions was better for Q2 than it was in the first quarter of 2025. However, regarding economic conditions in Nevada, business leaders expressed somewhat less optimism in the upcoming quarter. Around 35 percent predicted it would be better, while the majority expected it to stay the same or be worse.

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Tina Quigley, Former President/CEO, Las Vegas Global Economic Alliance, explains the overall success of economic development for a region requires business-friendly regulations, workforce pipelines, and operational values. She adds it is the entire community that makes or breaks economic development success.

UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research is mentioned at 14:45.

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Stephen Miller, an economics professor at UNLV and research director of the university’s Center for Business and Economic Research, agreed that the overall fiscal picture was “pretty good” but noted there are some negative signs for Southern Nevada’s economy, which could affect the region’s largest industry in other ways. Miller pointed out that the leading index for Southern Nevada’s economy has been drifting downward since March 2022 and the unemployment rate is rising.

Uncertainty about how the wildfires in Southern California could affect the housing market in nearby metro areas, such as Las Vegas, is also worth noting, he said.

“It’s not signaling that we’re in any trouble, but the leading index is providing some caution. So, we’re cautious,” Miller said. “We don’t see a recession around the corner, but who knows?”

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Nevada is one of seven states without a sub-minimum wage option for tipped workers. Silver State workers earn at least $12 per hour, while other states allow employees to pay their workers as low as $2.13 hourly if they earn tips on the job.

For many, their earnings and the tax credits they qualify for result in more tax returns than tax bills, according to Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV, who spoke in a previous Review-Journal report.

Woods had also brought up concerns the policy would discourage employers from paying fair wages as well as result in people giving less tips.

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Stephen Miller, an economics professor at UNLV and research director of the university’s Center for Business and Economic Research, concurred that the overall fiscal picture was “pretty good” but noted there are some negative signs for Southern Nevada’s economy, which could impact the region’s largest industry in other ways. Miller pointed out that the leading index for Southern Nevada’s economy has been drifting downward since March 2022 and the unemployment rate is rising.

Uncertainty about how the wildfires in Southern California could affect the housing market in nearby metro areas, such as Las Vegas, is also worth noting, he said.

“It’s not signaling that we’re in any trouble, but the leading index is providing some caution. So, we’re cautious,” Miller said. “We don’t see a recession around the corner, but who knows?”

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“Economists have been more optimistic on the economy because everything on our dashboards looks strong with the fact that other than inflation being high and coming down, and interest rates starting to ease,” said Andrew Woods, director, Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV. “But for consumers, they’ve felt more of a struggle in terms of their financial situations, despite the fact that wages are finally outpacing inflation. Purchasing power may be going up, but we’ll see if those gains continue, and if they continue under tariffs.”

Inflation-wise, pricing remains elevated, relative to earnings. The rate of increase of inflation is slowing, but that doesn’t mean prices are necessarily coming down. It means prices are going up more slowly.

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Uncertainty about 2025 hovers over the Las Vegas hospitality and gaming sectors after what in many respects was a robust 2024.

A report from the economic team at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas said a sluggish national economy, the result of the Fed’s efforts to combat inflation and avert a recession, may impede the city’s steady recovery from the pandemic.

There were several record-breaking months for statewide gaming revenue this year, and the total number of passengers through Harry Reid Airport in 2024 is expected to be an all-time high. Final numbers won’t be available for another month.

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Andrew Woods, director at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, said wage inflation is also a major area of rising costs for business owners. Workers — who were in short supply immediately after the pandemic — now have higher expectations for their wages, meaning some employers will have to keep up.

Between January 2021 and September 2024, Nevada wages rose on average, $10,166 after inflation, according to a U.S. Joint Economic Committee Report from Senate Democrats.