UNLV research shows a decline from the pandemic surge of Californians moving to Nevada.

FOX5 told you how UNLV researchers have been tracking migration trends for years, using the number of driver’s license surrenders as a metric to measure relocations.

From 2020 to 2021, record numbers of people moved from California to Nevada and Las Vegas. From 2022 to 2023, researchers noticed a decline and a further drop last year.

Professor Stephen Miller tells FOX5 that the trend is mainly tied to interest rates. Though housing is far more affordable in Las Vegas than Los Angeles, many people have either reconsidered their move or are holding off until interest rates drop once again.

“A lot of people have a low mortgage interest rate loan. So their monthly payment is pretty low. They couldn’t match that in the current market,” Miller said.

Researchers also found that fewer “work from home” opportunities limit the options for relocation. Cities such as Austin have also noticed a considerable decline.

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The pandemic hit Nevada hard, but it eventually eased and the state came back to life economically, just not as fast as the rest of the country.

Though our unemployment rate is one of the highest in the country, it’s still around 5%, which economists have long said amounts to full employment.

What’s hurting is inflation combined with a very low rate of wage growth.

The state reported in December that Nevada’s average hourly rate ranked 44th out of 50 states and the District of Columbia. And wage growth averaged just 1.3%, 49th in the country, and 16 states had wages with average wage growth above 5%.

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Last month, the Super Bowl was held here in Las Vegas. The event had a significant economic impact on the Entertainment Capital of the World.

Here to speak about that, as well as the state of the U.S. economy, is University of Nevada, Las Vegas economics professor Stephen Miller. He is the Director of Research for the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV’s Lee Business School.

Dr. Miller was joined by CYInterview sponsor Rob Gill, for what was a compelling discussion.

Speaking about the Super Bowl’s impact on Las Vegas, Professor Miller shared this:

“It ranges from about $400 million to $1.1, $1.3 billion dollars in economic impact. So, one thing to keep in mind about the Super Bowl is that it was already a big event in Las Vegas. Even though the game wasn’t here, there are lots of people that came to watch the game and bet on the game and so on and so forth. So, it was like adding icing on top of the cake that was already there.”

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“Structural unemployment” is a big part of the answer, according to professor Stephen Miller, director of research for UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER). Miller said Thursday that the job market has changed, but people haven’t caught up to it yet. There’s a mismatch between the jobs that are available and the people looking for work.

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The Center for Business & Economic Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas’s Director of Research, Stephen Miller, featured on the Bitesize Business Breakfast Podcast.

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The Center for Business & Economic Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas said the Super Bowl generates about $160 million in sports wagering in Las Vegas every year. This year’s game could be record-breaking.

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“When you have 40 million visitors, there’s always externalities–environmental, transportation, public safety, health,” says economist Andrew Woods, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research. “That is just the nature of [growth]. … We do need to have a conversation about the transportation we have, and are we giving enough choice and options so that we can host bigger and bigger events? We [also] have to make sure our workers can efficiently get to and from work … and be able to take our kids to school at the same time.”

It’s a conversation worth having, if we want this town to continue working for residents and visitors just as well as it does for major sporting events. But it’s a conversation more relevant to Formula 1 than the Super Bowl, Woods adds.

“With F1, it was a huge giant construction of a track, and they had never done something like that before on their own. And it was certainly a learning experience for all of us,” he says.

Although there are valid frustrations at the growing pains that come with accommodating bigger and bigger events, Woods says there’s no question that events like Formula 1 and the Super Bowl benefit the local economy.

“One in four jobs in Southern Nevada are tied to leisure and hospitality. One in $3 that is generated in Southern Nevada are tied to leisure and hospitality … About half of the state budget is dependent on some sort of tourism-related tax,” Woods explains. “We need these visitors to come and spend their money because that helps pay for public education and transportation, [etcetera].”

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In tourism-dependent Nevada, the unemployment rate rocketed even higher, topping out at 30.6% that month. The Las Vegas metro area, which was the hardest hit in the entire nation, saw its jobless rate soar to 34%.

“If you look at all the economic indicators, like gaming revenue and visitor volume and hotel occupancy rates, they dropped off a cliff,” said Stephen M. Miller, a professor of economics at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Miller, who also serves at the director of research for the Lee Business School’s Center for Business and Economic Research, added, “Because the casinos were closed, people were out of work, and if they had that extra [stimulus and unemployment] money coming in, they were not spending it and were saving it.”

He added: “They didn’t take the first job that came along, but it took a little extra time to search for a job or looking to embark on a new career ladder.”

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At UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), we did not forecast nor do we currently forecast an impending recession. But we are not ones to dish out humble pie to our colleagues for simply getting it wrong. Forecasting the future is tricky business, where the forecaster’s motto is “often wrong, never in doubt.”

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Film industry experts called for an expansion of the state’s film tax credit program during a panel Wednesday evening.

The panelists, including Nevada Film Office Director Kim Spurgeon, filmmaker Jay Torres and Vision Vegas CEO Jason Soto, said an expansion of the state’s film tax credits is important to the future of Southern Nevada’s burgeoning film industry.

And the lack of opportunity in Las Vegas means Southern Nevada students interested in the film industry often have to move elsewhere, meaning the state is losing its homegrown workforce, UNLV Associate Dean Warren Cobb said.

The event, which was hosted at District North on South Third Street, was part of an ongoing series of events hosted by UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

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