Despite a strong June jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Stephen Miller, professor and research director at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, said the U.S. job market is beginning to soften.

“It’s softening slowly,” Miller said. “It’s slowing down, but it’s still very positive.”

With the nationwide unemployment rate slowly increasing, the average duration of unemployment is doing the same. It increased from 20.7 weeks in June 2024 to 23 weeks in June 2025. Though comparable data is not readily available for Nevada, it suggests an increased difficulty in finding suitable work.

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Tourism and gambling have powered Las Vegas for decades — but with a historic decline in visitors and the uncertainty of a global trade war, many locals are starting to feel uneasy, even reminded of the 2008 recession. So how bad is it really, and what’s being done to protect the city’s future? Co-host Dayvid Figler talks with Shani Coleman from Clark County’s Office of Community and Economic Development and Andrew Woods from UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research about where things stand and how Las Vegas is trying to build a more resilient and diverse economy.

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Not everything that happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.

Especially when the world-renowned entertainment capital is experiencing some bumps in the road.

According to a recent report led by Stephen Miller, a professor of economics and research director at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, the outlook for Las Vegas’ gaming and tourism sectors through the end of 2025 and into 2026 isn’t as glitzy as one might hope.

Let’s break down what’s happening and what’s being done about it.

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An economist at the University of Nevada Las Vegas expressed concern about Las Vegas gaming and tourism for the rest of the year and the start of 2026.

Stephen Miller and the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) released a mid-year report this week, discussing the year-to-date decline in visitation (6.5%) and gaming revenue (1.1%) on the Strip. The report noted that the national economy faces a slowdown and uncertainty in the next six to 18 months over tariffs and the business climate that could exacerbate both.

CBER’s most recent Tourism Index for Southern Nevada declined 2.1 percent month over month and 2.2 percent year over year.

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Economics professor and research director for the Center for Business & Economic Research at UNLV, Stephen Miller, says he saw the increases in inflation coming.

“Well, I didn’t find it all surprising. At some point, this tariff tango that’s been going on for months is going to have its effect on prices,” Miller said.

Miller believes the inflation increase is just getting started.

“You know, I expect it to go up. I don’t know how much, probably maybe 3-4% for a few months,” he told me.

Inflation impacts everything, but just as a reminder, the 2.7% figure represents the average price increase from June 2024 to June 2025 for all products, including food, gas, rent, apparel and more. This means some items rose more than 2.7% and others even decreased in price.

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Expected migration to Southern Nevada will largely offset the consequences of declines in natural population growth, said Stephen Miller, an economics professor at UNLV and research director for the Center for Business and Economic Research.

Miller points to a population forecast predicting Clark County’s population to surpass 3 million people by 2060. However, how the state collects tax revenue is still a problem, he said.

“Even though we’re growing fast and revenues are increasing, the revenue structure isn’t keeping up,” Miller said. “The growth in revenues was slower than the growth in population.”

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LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Clark County is growing and fast. According to new projections from the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at UNLV, the county is expected to reach a population of 3 million residents by the year 2045.

That growth, fueled by a post-pandemic rebound, is being driven by migration from neighboring states and abroad, continuing a long-standing trend that’s shaping Southern Nevada’s future.

The region’s upward trajectory reflects more than just numbers. The demographic shifts reveal a story of change, opportunity, and critical planning for the decades ahead.

“From a historical standpoint, we’ve added closer to a million more people since 2000 to Southern Nevada, and yet they have reduced water consumption overall by 26%,” CBER Director Andrew Woods said Friday.

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Professor and Research Director for the UNLV Center for Business & Economic Research Stephen Miller believes economic uncertainty is spilling over into all industries, not just real estate.

“The word of the day is pause, uncertainty and pausing, waiting for more information,” said Miller.

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Andrew Woods, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), agreed that the long-term outlook is for higher demand.

“Mining in Nevada is looking at the long run demand over 10-30 years, which is still expected to grow. If we were still living in the world of January 2nd, 2025, I would say all else equaled, we’d see the downward pressure on prices of lithium stabilize as steady demand eases the supply glut. 2024 was a record year for EVs being a share of the global automotive market and the start of 2025 globally was okay for the industry,” Woods said last week from Quebec, where he was meeting with academics and universities as part of the Nevada Tech Hubs agreement.

“But with tariffs and a trade war, it introduces a lot of uncertainties that may have unintended consequences,” Woods said. “Some of that could be good for mining in Nevada, if the demand for onshoring ticks up.”

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Nationally, the U.S. has been on an economic roller coaster this year as President Donald Trump threatens tariffs on countries across the globe, raising the prospect of higher prices for consumers and businesses and increasing fears of a recession.

At a Federal Reserve meeting this month, officials “agreed that the risks of higher inflation and higher unemployment had risen,” minutes released Wednesday show.

All told, local business leaders’ view of U.S. economic conditions “nosedived,” and their view of conditions in Nevada “also sank,” the center reported.

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