In March, GOED unveiled a study by UNLV’s Brookings Mountain West, Center for Business and Economic Research and Transportation Research Center that found that state economic development is siloed across jurisdictions. Unlike in neighboring regional metropolitan centers, Southern Nevada lacks a governance structure to facilitate the planning and coordination needed to realize regional economic and infrastructure priorities.

The study also found that gaps in job creation, labor productivity and wages have persisted due to Southern Nevada’s continued overconcentration of employment in low-wage and low-productivity occupations.

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Stephen Miller, research director at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, said the Las Vegas Valley’s economic situation can best be described as the “California effect,” meaning our close proximity to the Golden State plays into the Silver State’s financial makeup.

“I wouldn’t compare Las Vegas to say Atlanta, that’s not a fair comparison,” he said. “I would compare Las Vegas to Orange County or San Francisco because that’s where most of our migration comes from.”

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The flurry of construction activity of all scales could be further affected by a recent change in U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates by 50 basis points in a step toward acknowledging slowing inflation and cooling labor market.

Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV, said projects in the works now have likely already been financed, but future development could be boosted by the changing policy. But the cut interest rates could affect consumer spending, which in turn affects a company’s bottom line.

“From what I’m hearing, construction is going to continue to be strong in the valley and with reduced interest rates, it’s a peace of mind,” Woods said. “If anyone’s got a crane up right now, they already have financing so the 50 basis points cut isn’t going to make you go out and refinance all your lending. Instead it’s about the direction of travel and looking ahead.”

Woods said the research center predicts a normalization in the economy, with looser access to money and a labor market that gives employers more of a focus on hiring qualified workers instead of ones they may have to train.

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Part of that workforce creation has to do with the studio project’s location at UNLV, which has a film school, and the plan’s focus on training that is geared toward building the film and television workforce in Las Vegas.

Howard Hughes’ studio project would be a part of the planned community the firm began building in 1990. Like Wahlberg, workers could live in the community where they work.

That’s a critical piece of the puzzle, said Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV.

“The concern we have around film when we model this from a diversification standpoint is, are the jobs staying here?” Woods said.

“Because if the jobs are getting up and leaving — film is very mobile — there’s not really much benefit,” Woods said.

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From the valets parking cars to the dealers at the blackjack tables to the bartenders at the city’s many bars, Las Vegas relies on people working for tips.

“Las Vegas was built on tips,” said James Reza, a city native who owns two high-end beauty salons in town.

Around 17% of workers in Nevada—the highest concentration in the country—make their living through tipped work, according to the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Nevada Las Vegas. Nationwide, tipped workers only account for about 2.5% of all workers, according to Yale’s Budget Lab.

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A recent example of this is the success of sports/entertainment investments. For example, the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV (2023) quantifies that sporting events in Las Vegas generated $1.845 billion in direct output only in the fiscal year 2022. This is why Las Vegas has been investing heavily in sports such as the teams in the National Football League, the National Hockey League, the Women’s National Basketball Association, and the United Soccer League – all added just in the last decade.

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Stephen Miller, research director at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, said he thinks the stock market overreacted to last week’s job data. He’s staying with his assessment that the U.S. economy is sticking a soft landing right now.

“The labor report was not bad, it was just weaker than expected and the unemployment rate went up,” said Miller.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. unemployment rate jumped to a three-year high in July of 4.3 percent from 4.1 percent in June. The Las Vegas Valley’s unemployment rate at the end of June was well above the national average at 6.2 percent, which Miller said is something to watch.

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Economists and tax experts say the money returned to the worker may be nominal and would not be the best way to help families. The median individual income in the Las Vegas region is roughly $50,800, and many of those workers depend on tips, according to Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV.

Nevada is one of seven states without a sub-minimum wage option for tipped workers. Silver State workers earn at least $12 per hour, while other states allow employees to pay their workers as low as $2.13 hourly if they earn tips on the job.

Woods said for many, their earnings and the tax credits they qualify for result in more tax returns than tax bills.

“I don’t know if, long term, the majority of people would even see the benefit,” Woods said. “They might see initially in terms of what they take home, but at the end of the year, when it all evens out, they might not see any gain.”

He also said he’s concerned the policy would discourage employers from paying fair wages. Customers may react negatively to increased emphasis on tips at a time of high inflation and discussions of the extent of tipping culture.

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UNLV’s latest annual 2024-2060 Population Forecast has Clark County’s population growth dipping below 2 percent in 2027 and below 1 percent by 2039. By 2060, the county will only be adding around 15,000 residents annually, for 0.5 percent growth.

Attracting new residents because of affordability, jobs

Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV and one of the authors of the report, said right now Clark County has a leg up on a lot of places in terms of attracting residents given its affordability.

“We are still a very popular place for particularly Californians to move to, and we get a good influx of people from Arizona and Illinois. And so 60 percent of our population growth is coming from out of state,” he said. “It’s really important for us to talk about economic migrants, they’re coming here for work and they’re coming here for economic purposes, such as a lower cost of living. And so we’re not like most of the nation where we’re on this gradual decline yet in terms of population growth. We’ve got a lot of people still moving here and they are voting with their feet.”

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Back in 1996, the UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic development projected that Clark County would have 2.26 million residents by 2024.

Turns out they weren’t far off as this year the same report, the 2024-2060 Population Forecasts has the county’s population at 2.41 million, so 26 years ago they were only off by approximately 147,000 residents.

Clark County is expected to hit 3 million residents in 2042, and the 1996 report estimated the county would break 2.5 million residents by 2034. This year’s report has Clark County breaking 2.5 million residents by 2027.

Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV and one of the authors of the CBER report said there is a long history in the valley of population projections.

“From what I was told, we started doing this on our own in the early 1990s when the population was really booming and there were competing forecasts,” he said. “Sometime around 1997 there was agreement at least among local government entities to focus on one forecast which I credit my predecessor, Dr. Keith Schwer, with achieving.”

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