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Inflation, jobs, housing: What’s next for Southern Nevada’s economy?

If there’s anything the election taught us, or maybe reminded us, rather, it’s that the economy is the most important issue for voters.

In a national survey by the public opinion research company, Gallup, in October of 2024, it found that amidst 22 other issues, 90% of respondents said a presidential candidate’s position on the economy was a “very important” influence on their vote.

Just last week, UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research held its annual Outlook Event at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas to highlight interesting economic data and trends in Southern Nevada, as well as the nation.

Where is Southern Nevada’s economy right now? Is it feeling the pain of inflation? What about jobs, housing, and its effort towards economic diversification? Where will Nevada’s economy be four years from now?

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Recession not likely in near future, Southern Nevada economists say

Southern Nevada’s short and long-term economic prospects may be characterized by efforts to develop existing industries and diversify into new ones, economic leaders forecasted on Wednesday.

Economists and business leaders discussed the immediate and long-term possibilities for Southern Nevada’s economy during the 2024 Economic Outlook, an event hosted by UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research. During the Wednesday panel discussion at Fontainebleau, UNLV and other thought leaders said they did not believe there was a recession risk in the immediate future, but noted that low-income and high-income consumers were experiencing the economy differently.

Sandip Bhagat, chief investment officer at Whittier Trust, said macroeconomic trends such as the country’s GDP and future GDP projects suggest the country is achieving a “soft landing,” the economic policy of tamping down the high inflation of the post-COVID period without causing large increases in unemployment. But he noted that some lower-end consumers still face economic pains from high prices in food, energy and rent.

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Economic outlook forecasts slowdown for Nevada’s tourism, gaming industries

Nevada’s tourism economy could hit some “bumps in the road” over the next few years, according to UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research’s yearly economic outlook report released Wednesday.

Las Vegas has seen an increase in visitors, gaming revenue and hotel occupancy rates in rebounding from the economic crisis brought on by COVID-19 closures in 2020, but all three areas are projected to fall in the region over the next two years, the group’s research projects.

The report projects that Southern Nevada’s visitor traffic will decrease by 5.8% in 2025 and 6.9% in 2026. And for gross gaming revenue, decreases by 5.4% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026 are anticipated.

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Breaking down the economic outlook for Southern Nevada going into 2025

Locals and voters across the country made it clear the economy is the number one issue facing us all. This was the main topic of discussion at the annual Outlook Event hosted by UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

Wednesday, local business leaders and economists gathered for a panel discussion at Fontainebleau, outlining the trends we’re seeing in Southern Nevada.

While the price of gas, groceries, and interest rates slowly drop, experts say our future looks bright. Let’s look at a breakdown of the top economic drivers here in the valley that we should all be watching in 2025.

For starters, local economists project healthcare to be the second biggest industry here in Southern Nevada by the next presidential election. Not surprising, the Las Vegas Medical District has seen substantial growth in recent years — including at UNLV’s Kirk Kerkorian School of Medicine which opened back in 2017.

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UNLV professor says R-J wrongly suggests she backs Trump’s economic plans

The person leading the country for the next four years won’t immediately affect the path of gaming and tourism in Las Vegas, said Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV. Woods, unlike Belarmino, is an economist.

“In the short run, there’s not much (a president can) do that impacts tourism,” Woods said. “But in the long run fiscal policy, monetary policy, how they respond to national crisesis really important to the strength of our economy.”

Woods emphasized that there wasn’t a specific candidate he was endorsing in his professional capacity because he believes it’s important to strictly analyze the policies and their effects.

“Historically, we’ve had great economies under Democrats and Republicans. We’ve had terrible economies under Democrats and Republicans,” Woods said. “I think it’s important that we separate the two.”

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The sports capital of the world? How sports boosted Las Vegas’ growth

2023 research paper from the UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research found the city’s major sports teams have boosted the economy by drawing in more visitors and creating “new valuable jobs” in sports education and other sports-related sectors.

While it’s not necessarily helping diversify Nevada’s tourism-dependent economy, UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research director Andrew Woods said it has helped develop that sector.

“It’s clear to us that it’s been good for the economy,” he said. “We are still dependent on leisure and hospitality’s success, but (sports) continues to make leisure and hospitality successful.”

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Nevada Strategic Growth Initiative aims to diversify the state economy through collaboration

In March, GOED unveiled a study by UNLV’s Brookings Mountain West, Center for Business and Economic Research and Transportation Research Center that found that state economic development is siloed across jurisdictions. Unlike in neighboring regional metropolitan centers, Southern Nevada lacks a governance structure to facilitate the planning and coordination needed to realize regional economic and infrastructure priorities.

The study also found that gaps in job creation, labor productivity and wages have persisted due to Southern Nevada’s continued overconcentration of employment in low-wage and low-productivity occupations.

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How much do you need to make to live comfortably in Las Vegas?

Stephen Miller, research director at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, said the Las Vegas Valley’s economic situation can best be described as the “California effect,” meaning our close proximity to the Golden State plays into the Silver State’s financial makeup.

“I wouldn’t compare Las Vegas to say Atlanta, that’s not a fair comparison,” he said. “I would compare Las Vegas to Orange County or San Francisco because that’s where most of our migration comes from.”

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What casino renovations say about the Vegas hospitality sector’s future

The flurry of construction activity of all scales could be further affected by a recent change in U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates by 50 basis points in a step toward acknowledging slowing inflation and cooling labor market.

Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV, said projects in the works now have likely already been financed, but future development could be boosted by the changing policy. But the cut interest rates could affect consumer spending, which in turn affects a company’s bottom line.

“From what I’m hearing, construction is going to continue to be strong in the valley and with reduced interest rates, it’s a peace of mind,” Woods said. “If anyone’s got a crane up right now, they already have financing so the 50 basis points cut isn’t going to make you go out and refinance all your lending. Instead it’s about the direction of travel and looking ahead.”

Woods said the research center predicts a normalization in the economy, with looser access to money and a labor market that gives employers more of a focus on hiring qualified workers instead of ones they may have to train.

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Tinseltown 2.0: Las Vegas’ Effort To Become A Film Hub

Part of that workforce creation has to do with the studio project’s location at UNLV, which has a film school, and the plan’s focus on training that is geared toward building the film and television workforce in Las Vegas.

Howard Hughes’ studio project would be a part of the planned community the firm began building in 1990. Like Wahlberg, workers could live in the community where they work.

That’s a critical piece of the puzzle, said Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV.

“The concern we have around film when we model this from a diversification standpoint is, are the jobs staying here?” Woods said.

“Because if the jobs are getting up and leaving — film is very mobile — there’s not really much benefit,” Woods said.

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