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Not everything that happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
Especially when the world-renowned entertainment capital is experiencing some bumps in the road.
According to a recent report led by Stephen Miller, a professor of economics and research director at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, the outlook for Las Vegas’ gaming and tourism sectors through the end of 2025 and into 2026 isn’t as glitzy as one might hope.
Let’s break down what’s happening and what’s being done about it.
An economist at the University of Nevada Las Vegas expressed concern about Las Vegas gaming and tourism for the rest of the year and the start of 2026.
Stephen Miller and the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) released a mid-year report this week, discussing the year-to-date decline in visitation (6.5%) and gaming revenue (1.1%) on the Strip. The report noted that the national economy faces a slowdown and uncertainty in the next six to 18 months over tariffs and the business climate that could exacerbate both.
CBER’s most recent Tourism Index for Southern Nevada declined 2.1 percent month over month and 2.2 percent year over year.
Economics professor and research director for the Center for Business & Economic Research at UNLV, Stephen Miller, says he saw the increases in inflation coming.
“Well, I didn’t find it all surprising. At some point, this tariff tango that’s been going on for months is going to have its effect on prices,” Miller said.
Miller believes the inflation increase is just getting started.
“You know, I expect it to go up. I don’t know how much, probably maybe 3-4% for a few months,” he told me.
Inflation impacts everything, but just as a reminder, the 2.7% figure represents the average price increase from June 2024 to June 2025 for all products, including food, gas, rent, apparel and more. This means some items rose more than 2.7% and others even decreased in price.
Expected migration to Southern Nevada will largely offset the consequences of declines in natural population growth, said Stephen Miller, an economics professor at UNLV and research director for the Center for Business and Economic Research.
Miller points to a population forecast predicting Clark County’s population to surpass 3 million people by 2060. However, how the state collects tax revenue is still a problem, he said.
“Even though we’re growing fast and revenues are increasing, the revenue structure isn’t keeping up,” Miller said. “The growth in revenues was slower than the growth in population.”
LAS VEGAS (KLAS) — Clark County is growing and fast. According to new projections from the Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) at UNLV, the county is expected to reach a population of 3 million residents by the year 2045.
That growth, fueled by a post-pandemic rebound, is being driven by migration from neighboring states and abroad, continuing a long-standing trend that’s shaping Southern Nevada’s future.
The region’s upward trajectory reflects more than just numbers. The demographic shifts reveal a story of change, opportunity, and critical planning for the decades ahead.
“From a historical standpoint, we’ve added closer to a million more people since 2000 to Southern Nevada, and yet they have reduced water consumption overall by 26%,” CBER Director Andrew Woods said Friday.
Professor and Research Director for the UNLV Center for Business & Economic Research Stephen Miller believes economic uncertainty is spilling over into all industries, not just real estate.
“The word of the day is pause, uncertainty and pausing, waiting for more information,” said Miller.
Andrew Woods, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER), agreed that the long-term outlook is for higher demand.
“Mining in Nevada is looking at the long run demand over 10-30 years, which is still expected to grow. If we were still living in the world of January 2nd, 2025, I would say all else equaled, we’d see the downward pressure on prices of lithium stabilize as steady demand eases the supply glut. 2024 was a record year for EVs being a share of the global automotive market and the start of 2025 globally was okay for the industry,” Woods said last week from Quebec, where he was meeting with academics and universities as part of the Nevada Tech Hubs agreement.
“But with tariffs and a trade war, it introduces a lot of uncertainties that may have unintended consequences,” Woods said. “Some of that could be good for mining in Nevada, if the demand for onshoring ticks up.”
Nationally, the U.S. has been on an economic roller coaster this year as President Donald Trump threatens tariffs on countries across the globe, raising the prospect of higher prices for consumers and businesses and increasing fears of a recession.
At a Federal Reserve meeting this month, officials “agreed that the risks of higher inflation and higher unemployment had risen,” minutes released Wednesday show.
All told, local business leaders’ view of U.S. economic conditions “nosedived,” and their view of conditions in Nevada “also sank,” the center reported.
The economic impact of the Vegas sports boom has been a fast-moving phenomenon, so specific and intriguing that the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER)and Sports Innovation Institute have created a tracking tool, the Southern Nevada Sports Economy Data Dashboard, to serve as an evolving research document.
“I think we predicted it and expected it within the traditional drivers of the economy, leisure and hospitality,” says CBER director Andrew Woods of the sports economy surge. “Where we’ve been surprised is the spillover effect into other industries or amateur sports. For example, the number of small businesses in sports instruction, those establishments alone increased 160% over the last 10 years.
“It spills over to members of the community who want to pick up those sports. You see that
at the [school] level where some of the most popular sports are girls flag football and amateur youth hockey.”
International visitation to Las Vegas had already dropped 12 percent in February. But was that the result of rhetoric from the Trump Administration, which was critical of both Canada and Mexico?
Canadians are the number one international visitor to Las Vegas, said Andrew Woods, director of UNLV’s Center for Economic Research, with Mexico second or third. Was the drop in their numbers because Las Vegas had the Super Bowl in 2024 but not in 2025?
Andrew Woods said it’s too early to decipher the February numbers. For this summer, though, he said surveys say people still want to travel.
“Consumers are just trying to find ways that they can control their costs, pay down debt, control debt with all the uncertainty out there,” he said. “As economists … we’re concerned about: where does this start to drag on purchases? Do they come to Vegas? Or do they come to Vegas and spend one night? Do they not go to a show? Not eat out as much?”
Woods said he’ll be watching carefully, as roughly one in three Las Vegas jobs are tied to the hospitality industry, directly and indirectly.
“We certainly think this year is going to be slower than it was the last couple years,” he said. “And we watching these jobs numbers in the employment market closely to kind of get a sense of what’s this going to look like six months from now.”