A survey of local business leaders shows more than half predict the U.S. economy will slide into a recession within the next two years, according to a quarterly report released by UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

According to the Southern Nevada Business Confidence Index, when asked to predict the next U.S. recession, 55.8 percent responded the U.S. economy could slide into a recession within the next 24 months, while slightly more than 30 percent didn’t see any recession happening in that timeframe. The remaining respondents said the country was already in a recession or predicted it would happen next year.

Forty-one percent of business leaders said their outlook of U.S. economic conditions was better for Q2 than it was in the first quarter of 2025. However, regarding economic conditions in Nevada, business leaders expressed somewhat less optimism in the upcoming quarter. Around 35 percent predicted it would be better, while the majority expected it to stay the same or be worse.

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Tina Quigley, Former President/CEO, Las Vegas Global Economic Alliance, explains the overall success of economic development for a region requires business-friendly regulations, workforce pipelines, and operational values. She adds it is the entire community that makes or breaks economic development success.

UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research is mentioned at 14:45.

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Stephen Miller, an economics professor at UNLV and research director of the university’s Center for Business and Economic Research, agreed that the overall fiscal picture was “pretty good” but noted there are some negative signs for Southern Nevada’s economy, which could affect the region’s largest industry in other ways. Miller pointed out that the leading index for Southern Nevada’s economy has been drifting downward since March 2022 and the unemployment rate is rising.

Uncertainty about how the wildfires in Southern California could affect the housing market in nearby metro areas, such as Las Vegas, is also worth noting, he said.

“It’s not signaling that we’re in any trouble, but the leading index is providing some caution. So, we’re cautious,” Miller said. “We don’t see a recession around the corner, but who knows?”

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Nevada is one of seven states without a sub-minimum wage option for tipped workers. Silver State workers earn at least $12 per hour, while other states allow employees to pay their workers as low as $2.13 hourly if they earn tips on the job.

For many, their earnings and the tax credits they qualify for result in more tax returns than tax bills, according to Andrew Woods, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at UNLV, who spoke in a previous Review-Journal report.

Woods had also brought up concerns the policy would discourage employers from paying fair wages as well as result in people giving less tips.

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Stephen Miller, an economics professor at UNLV and research director of the university’s Center for Business and Economic Research, concurred that the overall fiscal picture was “pretty good” but noted there are some negative signs for Southern Nevada’s economy, which could impact the region’s largest industry in other ways. Miller pointed out that the leading index for Southern Nevada’s economy has been drifting downward since March 2022 and the unemployment rate is rising.

Uncertainty about how the wildfires in Southern California could affect the housing market in nearby metro areas, such as Las Vegas, is also worth noting, he said.

“It’s not signaling that we’re in any trouble, but the leading index is providing some caution. So, we’re cautious,” Miller said. “We don’t see a recession around the corner, but who knows?”

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“Economists have been more optimistic on the economy because everything on our dashboards looks strong with the fact that other than inflation being high and coming down, and interest rates starting to ease,” said Andrew Woods, director, Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV. “But for consumers, they’ve felt more of a struggle in terms of their financial situations, despite the fact that wages are finally outpacing inflation. Purchasing power may be going up, but we’ll see if those gains continue, and if they continue under tariffs.”

Inflation-wise, pricing remains elevated, relative to earnings. The rate of increase of inflation is slowing, but that doesn’t mean prices are necessarily coming down. It means prices are going up more slowly.

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Uncertainty about 2025 hovers over the Las Vegas hospitality and gaming sectors after what in many respects was a robust 2024.

A report from the economic team at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas said a sluggish national economy, the result of the Fed’s efforts to combat inflation and avert a recession, may impede the city’s steady recovery from the pandemic.

There were several record-breaking months for statewide gaming revenue this year, and the total number of passengers through Harry Reid Airport in 2024 is expected to be an all-time high. Final numbers won’t be available for another month.

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Andrew Woods, director at UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, said wage inflation is also a major area of rising costs for business owners. Workers — who were in short supply immediately after the pandemic — now have higher expectations for their wages, meaning some employers will have to keep up.

Between January 2021 and September 2024, Nevada wages rose on average, $10,166 after inflation, according to a U.S. Joint Economic Committee Report from Senate Democrats.

This past month, the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) hosted its 31st annual Economic Outlook, bringing together business, government and community leaders from a variety of backgrounds and industries to discuss relevant economic topics and release CBER’s forecasts for the coming two years. If you missed our event, here are some takeaways:

•  CBER does not forecast a recession in the U.S. or Southern Nevada in the near future.
• CBER is closely watching for potential signs of a slowing economy. This past summer, a cooling job market, a shift in consumption patterns and declining consumer sentiment offered caution. Our concern eased as growth in consumer spending, complemented with strong investment by businesses, picked up heading into the holiday season.
• Unfortunately, concerns about affordability and household debt are unlikely to ease in 2025.

Our latest forecast predicts that Las Vegas will reach 41.3 million visitors by the end of 2024, up from 40.8 million just last year. Clark County’s population will continue to grow, CBER forecasts an additional 387,000 new residents by 2030 (about 106 new residents every day). How Southern Nevada keeps up with this growth will matter — CBER predicts home prices in Las Vegas will continue to increase by 4.9 percent with two or three interest rate cuts in 2025.

Economists came together at an event hosted by UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research (CBER) to talk about what’s in store for Southern Nevada’s economy in 2024. They held their Economic Outlook event at Fontainebleau Las Vegas where they shared their thoughts on how the economy might change in the next few years. They pointed out that some areas might face tough times, while others will see gradual shifts.